Call to mind the ever-present aura of prediction, an age old obsession with defining the undefinable. The world of academics and business-people have been so seduced by the notion of being able to pre-empt future actions. But despite the evolution of complex mathematical models, prediction is little better than its tea-based origins – a guess based on historical context.
Accurate predictions have become a matter of survival for companies, providing a means of being proactive rather than reactive to individual customer shifts, increasing likelihood of retention. But prediction models are often over-reliant on historical data , making them incompatible with current context and ill-prepared for anomalies.
In a small town, the little old lady in her shawls and misty voice knows the everyday workings of the individuals that seek her out. In the modern world, that lady could be the business that truly knows its customers. Prediction then becomes a matter of understanding the humanity of the individual, rather than merely their historical data or monetary worth.
Understanding a human being is an endless endeavor with an answer that evolves constantly. This is because as humans we grow and change and adapt to new surroundings, and make ever-harder decisions with age. Prediction then lies within the heart of knowing this change.
